I have extended the chart from my last post back to 2000 and included vote totals from the Presidential elections (presented as dashed lines). As you can see, the Republican vote total is pretty much exactly in line with the legislative vote total. The Democratic vote total is less so- but some of the difference could be explained by votes being taken from Democratic legislators and given to Greens.

As I have time I’m going to try to look at this trend on a more district-by-district level, and I eagerly await the Secretary of State posting the results from last week so I can go more in-depth.

Yes, I’m a total nerd.

The big question for 2012 will be, “Can Republicans break this trend.” If legislative Republicans can significantly exceed the Presidential vote total, then things may really be changing for them. If not, then things are basically as they’ve been the last ten years and they just rode a national wave this year at the easiest time, during a midterm, and their results in 2012 could be more dependent on the national mood and whether the economy starts to rebound. AMGers, of course, badly want to believe that their ideology finally won over the voters but I just don’t see it.

Information like this should also be carefully considered by Republican rank and file who are pushing for more conservative, “Jim DeMint” style posturing; for instance, the kind of Republican disappointed in Kevin Raye becoming Senate President. They should look at these graphs and also remember that their folk hero Paul LePage underperformed Dean Scontras by 5%, Levesque by 7%, and legislative Republicans overall by around 13%. Raye, for example, outperformed LePage in Hancock county by a margin of 68-35, nearly double (A rough comparison because I lack district specific vote totals, but the point is the margin is HUGE).